ACUS03 KWNS 111912
SWODY3
SPC AC 111911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears likely to remain negligible
across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a more prominent, blocking mid-level ridge may
continue to build offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast into the
Pacific Northwest during this period.  As this occurs, it appears
that a digging downstream short wave perturbation (within a branch
of cyclonic flow initially across California into the Southwest)
will contribute to the evolution of a closed low offshore of the
southern California/northern Baja coast by 12Z Tuesday.  Farther
downstream, another cyclonic circulation (initially digging across
the Minnesota international border vicinity) is forecast to continue
southeastward across the upper Great Lakes vicinity, as one short
wave perturbation digs around its western through southern periphery
and weaker impulse pivots to its east and northeast.

With larger-scale mid-level ridging centered over the Caribbean also
forecast to remain prominent, a generally confluent mid-level regime
is likely to be maintained to the east of the Rockies.  Models
suggest that this will continue to support the development of
expansive cold surface ridging, with the leading edge of one
reinforcing cold intrusion expected to overspread much of the
northern  Gulf of Mexico Monday through Monday night.  Within a
remnant plume of preceding low-level moisture return off a modifying
Gulf boundary-layer, it appears that low-level forcing for ascent
associated with warm advection may maintain convective development
into Monday.  However, this probably will tend to weaken/diminish
while spreading across the northeastern Gulf, toward the Florida
Gulf coast through Monday night.

..Kerr.. 01/11/2025

$$

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