ACUS02 KWNS 111651
SWODY2
SPC AC 111649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Weak thunderstorm activity is possible near southeastern Louisiana
coastal areas Sunday night.  Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms
will remain negligible across much of the the nation through this
period.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplifying mid/upper ridging offshore of the U.S.
Pacific coast, models indicate that a belt of cyclonic flow,
initially encompassing much of western into central North America,
will become increasingly split.  One embedded short wave
perturbation, emerging from the Intermountain West today, is
forecast to accelerate through an increasingly confluent regime
across the Great Lakes into Northeast, in advance of a mid-level
closed low digging south-southwest of Hudson Bay into the Minnesota
international border vicinity by 12Z Monday.  Another one or two
digging upstream perturbations may contribute to further
amplification of mid-level troughing across California through the
Southwest, northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley vicinity.

Downstream of this troughing, it appears that large-scale mid-level
ridging will build across much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
into the Southeast.  As this occurs, a lower/mid-tropospheric low,
currently near or just south of the Baja Peninsula, is forecast to
become increasingly deformed and weaken while accelerating
northeastward through an increasingly confluent regime across the
western Gulf/Gulf coast vicinity through the southern Appalachians
Sunday through Sunday night.

Beneath this regime, while a seasonably cold and stable environment
now established across much of the nation will generally be
maintained, models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric warming on
southerly return flow will develop across the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico into the Southeast.  It appears that this will be accompanied
by moistening emanating from a modifying Gulf boundary-layer, and
increasing precipitation within an evolving plume of large-scale
ascent.  Based on forecast soundings, this may include convection
capable of producing lightning as far north as north central Gulf
coastal areas by late Sunday evening into Sunday night.

..Kerr.. 01/11/2025

$$

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